兩岸和平推演系列四》2028臺灣變局 現在要思考（方恩格）

若2028年臺灣總統大選由非民進黨候選人勝出，其中一大未知數是中國大陸的反應，但同樣重要的，是美國會如何迴應。（示意圖／Shutterstock／達志）

我很榮幸最近能夠參加由旺中媒體集團與中華戰略暨兵棋研究協會共同舉辦的「和平推演」。

首先，必須強調的是，關於臺海關係以及可能爆發戰爭的兵棋推演非常多。這類兵推多數在美國舉行，部分則在臺灣進行。通常參與者是現役或退役軍官，其他與會者多爲研究戰爭、國際關係、解放軍或中國內政的學者專家。

這些兵棋推演通常試圖推測若中國大陸發動「先制攻擊」入侵臺灣，結果會如何。討論的情境包括臺灣軍方在美國陸、海、空軍抵達前能「撐多久」；焦點往往集中在雙方損失多少飛機與艦艇、多少軍民死亡，最終中國大陸的入侵能否被成功阻絕，或臺灣是否會投降。

不幸的是，許多兵棋推演的缺點在於——它們只聚焦於戰爭本身。因此，若有一場兵推着重於臺灣與美國(不只是中國)政治人物的決策過程，而非純粹的作戰情境，那將對於如何維持美中臺三方和平帶來相當大的價值。

其次，本次和平推的情境設定爲：2028年1月臺灣總統大選由非民進黨候選人勝選。因此，與會者有機會討論民進黨失去政權後可能出現的各種局勢，以及中國與美國可能的反應。在此情境中，賴清德政府已掌控臺灣的外交、兩岸與國防政策4年，而在他之前，蔡英文總統也主政8年。因此，若非民進黨候選人勝選，中國與美國會如何反應，值得更多關注——若不是現在，那至少應該在2028年大選前深入探討。

當然，可以理解賴政府希望避免這類討論，因爲他希望爭取連任。這也正是爲何這種準備更顯必要。即使2028年總統選舉結果仍由賴清德勝出，這類討論對未來（例如2032年總統大選）仍然具有參考價值。

第三，美國在2028年臺灣總統大選前後的角色存在許多未知數。以下列出幾項：

一、川普政府是否會偏好2028年臺灣總統大選中的某位候選人？儘管近期有許多猜測認爲賴清德政府與川普政府關係不佳，但筆者並不認同。目前跡象顯示，川普政府傾向支持民進黨繼續執政。若國民黨或民衆黨希望改變這一點，就必須說服川普政府，爲何不該支持賴清德在2028年連任。

二、中國與臺灣議題會否成爲2028年美國總統大選的因素之一？雖然川普時常提到他希望在2028年11月再度參選，但美國憲法禁止第三任期。因此，民主黨與共和黨將於2028年1月起陸續舉行初選，以決定各自的候選人。實際上，「競選季」會更早展開，根據以往經驗，從2026年11月期中選舉結束後不久，就會有候選人宣佈參選；至2027年上半年，雙方陣營將出現多位競爭者。

在黨內初選期間，最可能的主要議題仍是經濟政策及與民生有關的議題。社會議題（即「文化戰爭」議題）也可能受到重視。

中國議題有可能在2027年的初選期間成爲討論焦點，但最可能的原因將與美中貿易有關，而非人權、香港、臺灣或南海問題。因此，臺灣在這段時間內不太可能成爲焦點。不過值得注意的是，在2023年共和黨初選期間，一些候選人確實曾提及臺灣議題，例如拉馬斯瓦米（Vivek Ramaswamy）曾說要「讓臺灣每個家庭都擁有槍支」。

此外，當民主黨與共和黨自2028年1月起陸續舉行州級初選時，候選人仍不太可能特別關注臺灣議題。因此，在2028年1月至5月之間（假設非民進黨候選人勝選）臺灣總統交接期間，除非兩岸關係緊張升高，否則臺灣議題不太可能成爲美國政治的重要討論焦點。

獲得兩黨提名的候選人當然會在2028年8月至11月大選最後階段討論外交政策，但那已是臺灣在2028年5月20日新總統就職之後的事情。

三、若2028年臺灣總統大選出現政黨輪替，這將發生在川普政府的最後幾個月。因此，如果臺灣真的出現政權轉移，那將發生在川普政府任期尾聲。屆時川普總統會否積極處理美中或美臺關係？他的外交與國防顧問會否仍投入？往往在美國總統任期的最後幾個月，幕僚也在準備離任後的去向。因此，很難預測屆時他們對臺灣議題的關注程度。若川普政府在任期最後階段對臺灣事務不太積極，這是否會讓中國大陸趁機對臺灣施加軍事壓力，或迫使臺灣當選總統與其談「和平協議」？

總結來說，這場「和平推演」顯示：若2028年臺灣總統大選由非民進黨候選人勝出，後續會有許多未知數，其中一大未知數是中國大陸的反應，但同樣重要的，是美國會如何迴應。臺灣人民現在就應該開始思考這些問題。

（作者爲全球美國僑會臺灣代表處主任）

Taiwan Needs More Peace Games

By Ross Darrell Feingold

Former Asia Chairman, Republicans Abroad

X: @RossFeingold

It was an honor to recently participate in a “peace tabletop exercise” co-organized by the Want Want China Times Group and the Council on Strategic and Wargaming Studies.

First, it must be emphasized that there are many tabletop exercises about China-Taiwan relations and the possibility of a war. Many of these tabletop exercises occur in the United States, though some are also held in Taiwan. Usually, the participants are current, or retired, military officers, and other participants typically include scholars who are experts in topics such as war fighting, international relations, the People’s Liberation Army, or China’s internal politics.

These tabletop exercises typically try to determine the outcome if China makes a “first strike” and invades Taiwan. The scenarios discussed in these tabletop exercises include how long the Taiwan military can “hold out” prior to the arrival of the land, naval and air forces of the United States. Often, the focus is on how many planes or ships each side loses, how many soldiers and civilians die, and ultimately, whether China’s invasion of Taiwan can be successfully stopped, or, if Taiwan will surrender.

Unfortunately, the shortcoming of many of these tabletop exercises is that they focus on war only.

Thus, a tabletop exercise that focuses on decision-making by politicians in Taiwan and the United States (and not only China), rather than only war fighting scenarios, adds a lot of value to the discussion about how to maintain peace between China, Taiwan, and the United States.

Secondly, the scenario for this tabletop exercise begins with the victory in the January 2028 Taiwan presidential election by a candidate not from the Democratic Progressive Party candidate. Thus, the participants had the opportunity to discuss many different situations that could arise following the loss of power by the Democratic Progressive Party, and how China and the United States might react to that. In such a scenario, President William Lai’s administration would have controlled Taiwan’s foreign, China, and defense policy for four years, and prior to that, former President Tsai Ing-wen controlled these policies for eight years. Thus, how China and the United States might react to the victory by a candidate not from Democratic Progressive Party deserves more attention, if not today, then certainly as the 2028 Taiwan presidential election approaches.

Of course, it is understandable that Lai administration wants to discourage such discussion, as it hopes to win a second term. This might be why such preparation is necessary. Even if the result of the 2028 Taiwan presidential election is a victory for President Lai, such discussion could still be helpful for the future, such as the 2032 Taiwan presidential election.

Third, the role of the United States in events both before, and after, the 2028 Taiwan presidential election in Taiwan, creates many unknowns”. A few are discussed below.

1. Will the Trump administration favor a candidate in the 2028 Taiwan presidential election? Despite much speculation recently that the Lai administration does not have good relations with the Trump administration, this author does not believe it. As of now, the indications are that the Trump administration prefers continued governance of Taiwan by the Democratic Progressive Party. If the Chinese Nationalist Party or Taiwan People’s Party want to change this, the burden is on them to convince the Trump administration why it should not support President Lai’s re-election in 2028.

2. Will China, and Taiwan, be a factor in the 2028 United States presidential election? Although President Trump often talks about how much he would like to run for election again in the November 2028 presidential election, the United States constitution prohibits this. Thus, both the Democratic Party and Republican Party will hold party primaries starting in January 2028 to determine their candidate for the November 2028 presidential election. The “campaign season” for the primaries will begin long before that. Based on past experience, candidates will begin to announce their candidacy starting soon after the mid-term election in November 2026. By the first half of 2027, there will be many candidates seeking the nomination to be the 2028 presidential candidate for either the Democratic Party or the Republican Party.

Most likely the key issue in the party primaries will again be economic policy and related issues such as the cost of living. Social issues (or “culture war” issues) might also be important.

It is possible that China will be a factor during the period of 2027 when the candidates are campaigning for their party’s nomination. If it is, the most likely reason is related to United States - China trade relations, rather than other issues such as human rights, Hong Kong, Taiwan, or the South China Sea. Thus, Taiwan is unlikely to be a focus of the candidates during this period. However, it should be noted that during the campaigning for the Republican Party nomination throughout 2023, the topic of Taiwan sometimes arose, with candidates saying supportive things about Taiwan such as when Vivek Ramaswamy said put a gun in the hands of every family in Taiwan.

In addition, after the Democratic Party and Republican Party begin to hold their state-by-state primaries in January 2028, it is still unlikely that the candidates will pay much attention to Taiwan. Thus, during the transition period from the outgoing Taiwan president to the incoming Taiwan president between January and May 2028 (assuming the candidate not fromm the Democratic Progressive Party wins the election), Taiwan is unlikely to be an important topic of discussion in United States politics, unless tensions between China and Taiwan increase.

The candidate who does win the nomination of the Democratic Party, and the Republican Party, will of course have to deal with foreign policy issues during the final months of the campaign, but that will be between August and November 2028. That is long after Taiwan’s president is inaugurated on May 20, 2028.

3. The Taiwan presidential election in January 2028, the transition to a new president (if President Lai is not re-elected) between January and May, and the inauguration of a new president on May 20, 2028 will occur during the final months of the Trump administration.

Thus, if there is in fact a political party transition in Taiwan, it will occur during the final months of the Trump administration. Will President Trump be very engaged in US - China relations, or US - Taiwan relations, during this period? What about President Trump’s foreign policy and defense policy advisers? Often during the final months of an American presidency, the advisers are also busy planning what they will do after they leave government. Thus, it is difficult to guess now what their level of interest in Taiwan will be at that time. If the Trump administration is not very engaged in Taiwan issues during its final months, does it make it more likely that China will put military pressure on Taiwan at that time, or put pressure on Taiwan’s president-elect to make a “peace deal”?

In conclusion, this “peace tabletop exercise” indicates that there are many unknowns about the aftermath of a Taiwan presidential election that is won by a candidate not from the Democratic Progressive Party candidate. A major unknown is how China will react. But just as important, a major unknown is how the United States will react. People in Taiwan should certainly be thinking about this now.